Regression Expectations and Transformation: The Middle East by 2020

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2020 is in many parts of the Middle East. Some developments collapse. While there is a glimmer of hope for unstoppable conflicts, other changes are exacerbating existing issues in the region.

Reflected on for a year Iraq versus Iran Other pieces were published by Al Jazeera.

Syria

In the 10 years since the war, more than 500,000 people have been killed and more than half of all 13 million displaced in Syria have not seen long-term progress on the resolution.

Turkey and Russia agree New ceasefire At the beginning of March, Idlib was the last remaining rebel castle.

However, President Bashar al-Assad reaffirmed his intention to reclaim all Syrian territory, including the Kurdish-led northeastern region, including Idlib.

Despite ceasefire agreements between Moscow and Ankara, Israel continues to militarily attack Iranian targets in Syria.

Adding to the instability of the situation is the resurgence of ISIL (ISIS).

The group has carried out a series of attacks due to the epidemic and vacuum caused by the withdrawal of US troops from some areas of the US, and regrouped a year after the disintegration of physical Islamic religious leaders in eastern Syria.

Former Syrian ambassador to Turkey Nidal Kabalan told Al Jazeera that US sanctions on the Syrian government, which has weakened the country’s economy, have been exacerbated by the 2021 presidential election.

“While the Syrian people cannot wait to recapture one of the worst years of the worst conflict in a decade, their main concern is to politically focus on overcoming the effects of sanctions and the outcome of the next presidential election.”

Yemen

Fighting between President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and government forces under the Southern Transitional Council (STC) continues in the south, and Houthis rebels continue to fight Saudi-led coalition forces and government forces in the north.

The Saudi-led military alliance has been fighting the Iranian-backed Houthis since 2015.

The Houthis control the northern and western capitals of Sanaa and large areas. Shipping problems have become a burden on international shipping.

Meanwhile, tens of thousands have died in the last 10 years. According to the United Nations, Yemen is facing the worst Humanitarian crisis Over the decades.

Rahmah Watheeq is a malnourished girl in Yemen. He is being treated at Al-Sabeen Hospital in Sanaa [File: Hani Mohammed/AP Photo]

Still, international aid has dwindled compared to previous years. In June, the International Donor Conference was $ 1 billion less than the United Nations target of $ 2.4 billion.

One solution to the conflict is to find the same Houthis, The Hadi government and the STC will be needed. But the objectives of each group remain completely contrary. The Council on Foreign Relations believes that peace between the internationally recognized government and the Hoi An is rare.

Libya

The conflict between the former United Nations National Convention (GNA) government and the newly-appointed Commander-in-Chief Khalifa Haftar has been dominated by foreign actors.

Turkish-backed GNA created significantly Battlefield benefits Earlier this year, Russia, He opposed the LNA, which was backed by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

The GNA took full control of Tripoli.

In August, the GNA announced its commitment to a ceasefire and a political solution.

He was able to have some constructive discussions, and In Switzerland, a real progress plan was drawn up at the September meeting. With the permission of key Libyan actors and members of the United Nations Assistance Mission (UNSMIL) in Libya

Most importantly, the presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in 2021. It is scheduled for December 24 and both sides have agreed.

In any case, Barriers remain, especially due to infectious diseases.

COVID-19 has removed European focus from Libya and allowed Russia to make further adjustments, said Nicolai Due-Gundersen, a political analyst at the United Nations Training and Research Institute.

“Libya cannot be a priority as the EU and the world deal with COVID-19,” he said. This includes using Russian military means.

Egypt

The government continues to fight ISIL’s regional ties on the Sinai Peninsula, while President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has tightened his grip on the country.

But he’s growing friction among the Egyptian population Protests Opposition to the government in September amid repression and expulsion of El-Sisi journalists Massacre:

The chair and two staff members of the Egypt Initiative for Privacy Rights recently Arrested Dissemination of fake news;

These developments have alarmed the European Union. Parliament has decided to consider imposing sanctions on Egypt over its crackdown on human rights activists.

However, the Egyptian government has denied any international criticism as continuing to intervene.

The situation is fueling inequality in the country. New protests and the rise of political analysts Hamid Chriet say.

There is inequality in the distribution of income in Egypt. An estimated 35 to 40 percent of Egypt’s population earns less than $ 2 a day, and only 2-3 percent are considered wealthy.

In addition, the COVID-19 situation is likely to worsen.

“The sanitation crisis exacerbated by COVID-19 infection exacerbates inequality. The aftermath could lead to wider protests.

Palestine

along with Regular Agreements The Palestinians, who signed an agreement between the Arab states and Israel, became increasingly isolated. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas has promised elections

But reconciliation with Hamas is not enough, but it remains clear.

“The departure of the Palestinians from Arab dictatorships, especially their incompetent leadership, is deeply rooted and will certainly continue in the new year,” said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

In the last days of the Trump administration, the Palestinians saw how Israel’s interests increased.

Turkey Turkey Addressing the Turkish Parliament, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds a caption card displaying historical maps of Palestine. [File: Burhan Ozbilici/AP Photo]

With the decision to fight Advance vote Plans are underway to establish a Givat Hamatos situation. Formerly a red line for the international community. Israel will build its first settlement in occupied East Jerusalem in 20 years.

Most Palestinians consider East Jerusalem to be the capital of Palestine, with East Jerusalem separated from Bethlehem by a two-state solution. Not available

US President-elect Joe Biden is a staunch supporter of a two-state solution and has promised to return US aid to the Palestinians, but it is unlikely he will significantly change the status quo.

“Israeli settlement-colonialism will continue in the West Bank, possibly at a slower pace than the departure of Donald Trump,” Hashemi said.

Israel

Although regular agreements are detrimental to the Palestinians, they are crucial for Israel’s economic development and greater security with its common enemy, Iran.

And it is not a mystery to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Itinerary The recent move to Saudi Arabia could be considered an important step for Israeli-Arab normalization

Hashemi said relations between Palestine and Israel would not change much by 2021.

Joe Biden will return American policy to the Obama administration. This means that the United States is very supportive of Israel. It means a firm refusal to consider using American influence to abide by international law. ”

However, Netanyahu has made significant contributions to his international success, but his situation remains problematic.

The coalition between his Likud party and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party was disbanded by the government on December 23 due to disagreement over the budget.

Israel is facing it now Fourth election For two years.

This is further complicated by the formation of the New Hope party of Gideon Saar, a breakaway Likud member who not only became the third-largest force, according to the survey, but also a deep-seated distribution of the Knesset’s traditional core forces. Political future for danger



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